Donald Trump has spent his first month as president governing with chaos, shock, and awe. He threatened, walked back, and imposed some tariffs; let Elon Musk take a hatchet to the federal bureaucracy; purged agencies and departments of opposition; and captured media attention with executive orders and expansionist daydreams.
And through it all, his overall popularity has remained steady — historically high for him even if historically unpopular compared to other modern presidents, according to Gallup polling. He still holds a positive net approval rating — something he only achieved for two weeks at the start of his first term, per FiveThirtyEight’s averages. That measure has hovered at around 50 percent approval, a higher share of support than he ever had eight years ago. The margin has shrunk a bit since he took office, but it still sits at +3.3 points.
His personal favorability, another measure of how Americans feel about the president, is similarly more positive than it’s been since he left office in 2021. Roughly even shares of Americans think of him positively or negatively.
These factors naturally prompt a few follow-up questions, ones that are particularly vexing for Trump’s critics. Why hasn’t all this chaos done anything to dent his popularity? What’s helping him? And how long can that last?
We now have a decent amount of polling and data to answer those questions. Much of what they show is not exactly rocket science: Almost half of Americans voted for Trump, and they like what they see so far. The data also includes a poll shared exclusively with Vox that suggests some serious warning signs for the president as his honeymoon tapers off. But the bottom line is that people mostly approve of what Trump is doing, and he is keeping high levels of support from Republicans and a good share of independents and moderates.
The main reason: plenty of what Trump is doing resonates with Americans so far
There’s a very simple explanation for why so many Americans view Trump favorably: they think that he’s living up to his campaign promises, or doing even better than they expected, on a range of actions Trump has taken so far.
A few eye-opening results from a recent CBS/YouGov poll show this: some 70 percent of Americans think Trump is keeping his campaign trail promises, and nearly half of Americans think he’s doing even more than they expected he would in the early days of his presidency. Among that subset of respondents, the vast majority like the fact that he’s exceeding their expectations.
Looking specifically at the issues, Trump gets positive marks for his attention to immigration and the southern border and for cutting government spending and foreign aid budgets. Another poll, from Marquette University, shows something similar for two other areas: Trump’s executive orders and stance on transgender people, and his plan to expand oil and gas production in the US. Both enjoy double-digit levels of support.
Of course, an important addendum to these perspectives is the degree of attention that Trump’s actions have received. The president has mastered the attention economy, so the American public feels quite informed about what it is that he’s prioritizing. That YouGov/CBS poll shows that, to a degree: Some 45 percent of Americans say they’re paying “a lot” of attention to political news. Another 35 percent say they are paying some attention. That attention seems to be benefitting Trump and his party — as most attitudes toward Democrats remain quite negative, from both Republicans, Independents, and an angered Democratic base.
Trump’s weirdest policy moves are the least popular
Yet there are a handful of other eccentric and wacky Trump positions and priorities that don’t seem to enjoy the same level of approval — including one signature Trump position that carries pretty negative associations. It runs a bit counter to one of the theories for Trump’s success on the campaign trail: that his weirdness, his bluster, and his comedic celebrity were part of why voters liked him.
That same Marquette poll that finds Trump’s immigration, transgender, and energy policies to be popular also finds some of Trump’s more random policy positions to be viewed quite negatively.
“Taking back” the Panama Canal and pardoning January 6 rioters are both opposed by 65 percent of Americans, while renaming the Gulf of Mexico is opposed by a little more than 70 percent of Americans. “Trump’s more traditional executive orders are very positively received, as expected for a president in his honeymoon phase,” the election analyst Lakshya Jain, from Split-Ticket.org, said in a post reflecting on these dynamics. “One of the biggest strikes against ‘people love Trump’s weirdness’ is that renaming the Gulf of Mexico, taking back the Panama Canal, and pardoning J6 rioters all are incredibly unpopular actions, while GOP-orthodox policies on gender, immigration, and drilling are net positive.”
Similarly, a recent poll conducted by the progressive research firm Data for Progress (and shared with Vox) found that when asked about some more specific actions Trump has taken under the umbrella of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and purging the government of “wokeness,” Americans seem less favorable to Trump’s position. Other polling here is a little messy, but in general, DEI initiatives in theory still remain quite popular.
Some 62 percent of American adults in the poll opposed administrative moves to remove mentions of “climate change,” from the US Department of Agriculture’s website and to remove the Spanish-language version of the White House website. More than 70 percent, meanwhile, oppose federal agencies’ moves to stop celebrating Black History Month or Martin Luther King Jr. Day. And while Americans are generally okay with the gutting of USAID and cuts to government spending and the federal bureaucracy, they’re wary of the role of Elon Musk and his so-called Department of Government Efficiency team. The Data for Progress poll matches YouGov’s surveys for CBS and The Economist this month: Musk himself is quite unpopular. At least half of the nation has an unfavorable opinion of him, per the Data for Progress poll. Those two YouGov surveys either show that Americans wish Musk had less influence in conducting government operations or are outright concerned about the level of influence he musters. While 63 percent of American adults think Musk has “a lot” of influence within Trump’s administration, only 18 percent say they want him to have that much power, according to the Economist/YouGov survey. Across all partisan groups, the level of “perceived” influence is higher than respondents’ “desired” influence. That perception will matter as Trump’s presidency carries on, and Americans wonder who in fact is influencing the presidents’ decisions.
“Voters wanted change from the status quo in 2024, and Trump was seen as the change candidate. But he's still far more unpopular than other presidents were at this point in their term, including Biden,” Evangel Penumaka, Data for Progress’s polling principal and research director, told me. “So far, voters have seen a chaotic administration attempting a lot of policy changes at once and giving undue power to the world’s richest man. And while Trump may be appeasing those who care strongly about immigration, he still has yet to show voters that he can address their top concern — the economy.”
Trump still faces a singular threat: inflation
That final factor — the economy — could end up being a much bigger liability for Trump than is currently being discussed. It was the predominant reason Trump was elected — and it’s the issue that most Americans think Trump isn’t paying enough attention to at this point. The CBS poll, for example, found that 66 percent of Americans think Trump is not putting enough “focus on lowering prices.” An analysis by CNN’s Harry Enten found a similar dynamic: some 55 percent of Americans think “inflation” or “the economy in general” should be Trump’s focus during his first 100 days.
His proposed tariffs on Mexico, Europe, and Canada are all tremendously unpopular — only tariffs with China are viewed favorably by a majority of Americans.
The Marquette survey found similar division on whether tariffs are good for the economy — a plurality, 46 percent, think they would hurt the national economy, while about half of Americans think they would increase inflation.
“Unless Trump can meaningfully show voters that he is focused on the cost of living, his work eliminating government services and undermining consumer protections is not likely to win over voters who were motivated by pocketbook issues in November,” Penumaka, of Data for Progress, told me.
The overall Trump favorability remains positive — but is trending down. So the question now is: will this honeymoon last for long? Americans who are tuned in to these political dynamics may continue to see negative media coverage, a reorganized Democratic opposition, and slow movement on economic conditions, like the prices of goods and services. For now, the positive feelings Americans have for a certain non-economic segment of Trump’s policies are keeping him afloat. But if he doesn’t make material progress on those economic expectations, could the same malaise that set in during Biden’s presidency return? And if those conditions and feelings do improve, will voters give him credit? Up until now, Trump has shown he can defy expectations. But inflation has beaten presidents before — and it’s now unclear if Trump will be an exception.
If you're seeking reliable vent solutions, look no further than Mr. Lint Guy. Specializing in dryer vent cleaning, Mr. Lint Guy offers effective solutions to prevent fire hazards and improve dryer efficiency. Whether you're dealing with stubborn dryer valley problems or just need regular maintenance, Mr. Lint Guy has the expertise to keep your home safe and your dryer running at its best.
0 Comments